tradersams blog

iif open

IIF:  Opened a position again today in the ING Industrial Fund at $0.52.  The share still seems to be climbing nicely, so re-entering to see if I can grab a few more $$ from its rising.

Looking at the picture to the right there appears to be bullish rejection over the last 3 days or so, hopefully forming support just below my entry -so a tight stop is in order for this trade.

tol open

TOL:  Opened a position indirectly in Toll holdings today – indirectly taken out by using a warrant in Toll – tolwmb at 0.245.  A warrant was taken because I want to leverage the position, and the warrants aren’t heavily enough traded for my liking.

Looking at the daily graph to the right, Toll has a reasonable short term uptrend in place.

Things actually get interesting for me though when I look at the weekly chart below.

Toll weekly

I’m looking at this as a fairly nicely formed inverse head and shoulders pattern, which sounds to me like a fairly solid bottoming formation.  The share fell into the left side of the H&S during the GFC, so I’m looking to ride this up.

My biggest risk in this trade?  That the warrant will expire before the real movement happens.  I have paid a fair bit for time decay in the warrant, so the share does have to increase significantly by November for my strategy to be sound.  For the purposes of risk determination, when entering warrants I consider the whole investment as R for my risk / reward calculations.

Anyway, off to bed, with happy dreams about $AUD/USD longs and Gold longs!