Archive for September, 2009|Monthly archive page
today – open tol, iif
Comments (1)
iif open
IIF: Opened a position again today in the ING Industrial Fund at $0.52. The share still seems to be climbing nicely, so re-entering to see if I can grab a few more $$ from its rising.
Looking at the picture to the right there appears to be bullish rejection over the last 3 days or so, hopefully forming support just below my entry -so a tight stop is in order for this trade.
tol open
TOL: Opened a position indirectly in Toll holdings today – indirectly taken out by using a warrant in Toll – tolwmb at 0.245. A warrant was taken because I want to leverage the position, and the warrants aren’t heavily enough traded for my liking.
Looking at the daily graph to the right, Toll has a reasonable short term uptrend in place.
Things actually get interesting for me though when I look at the weekly chart below.
Toll weekly
I’m looking at this as a fairly nicely formed inverse head and shoulders pattern, which sounds to me like a fairly solid bottoming formation. The share fell into the left side of the H&S during the GFC, so I’m looking to ride this up.
My biggest risk in this trade? That the warrant will expire before the real movement happens. I have paid a fair bit for time decay in the warrant, so the share does have to increase significantly by November for my strategy to be sound. For the purposes of risk determination, when entering warrants I consider the whole investment as R for my risk / reward calculations.
Anyway, off to bed, with happy dreams about $AUD/USD longs and Gold longs!
today – open okn
okn open
OKN: Opened a position in Oakton today soon after market open at $2.55.
Oakton has been good to me recently – not that thats a good reason alone to trade it. I entered coz there was a gap up on open, forming a bounce on a previous support line – which earlier was a resistance line.
In other markets, Gold is breaking out and the Aus dollar seems to have stalled against the USD.
Au revoir!
today – open ipl, ifm
ipl open
IPL: Opened a position in Incitec Pivot today at $2.95 on market opening this morning. Incitec has been a reasonably volatile mover over the last couple of years, and has been a reasonable earner for me in the past. The share has been at its highs for the year lately, and has just dipped to the previous medium term high.
I’m using this previous resistance as a potential support point – but I wont actually know for a while. This does allow a tight stop to be set however which is good from a risk management perspective.
ifm pyramid entry
IFM: Increased my position in Infomedia today by placing another buy at $0.415. The share actually took quite a dip during the days trade when the bears dragged it down in early trade, but it recovered healthily closing near the high.
Readings… Change on the Horizon?
Looking at Stockgawk, there is an interesting article where Andrew Finkle talks about his reasons why he thinks we’re about to see a reversal… a key item he mentions that I have observed is
The past few days have shown a lot of Dojis. … a Doji is a reversal day – where price gets rejected … This makes me think back to Ralph Block … who used to say “Volatility is the precursor to a change in trend.”
Looking at my recent trades (published here and my unlisted ones) I am seeing price fluctuations that, whilst bearish in the short term, seem ‘undecided’ when looked at over a slightly longer period of time. I listen to the talk at work, and its like everyone is waiting… this is not the increased excitement I was detecting just a couple of weeks ago.
So, as you may have noticed I trade more to the bull side of the market, but this is more affected by the sorts of trades I can comfortably pull off. As I have a full time day job I don’t tend to make trading decisions by day, I just act on earlier plans – but in my experience to play the short side of the market (with options / warrants / CFD’s) I need a closer contact with the market in order to maintain a chance of securing profits I might make – the speed of movement isn’t always in my favour in those areas.
So – why did his article resonate with me? Well, many have heard of the magazine front page effect, ie: when everyones talking about it, you are probably too late. I had one of those moments tonight – on the news here in Australia there was a commentator who said “Its a champagne moment for Australia” when commenting that we had effectively dodged a bullet as far as the economic crisis is concerned. I spose you had to see the gentlemans exhuberance. What I saw, combined with my recent views of the market, has me pulling my stops in on my plans, and keeping a close eye. Despite me having issues managing short trades – that doesn’t mean I don’t enact the plan!
Anyway, US market down looking undecided in the first 2 hours of trade, and I need to know how that goes before I set my entry trades for the open – if I do at all!
today – close mcc, mre
mcc close
MCC: Closed the position in Macarthur Coal at 8.30 for 11% gain. Followed this plan well – MCC has been good to me (not that it cares a toss about me!) and I will continue to watch. Trailing stop loss plan has been effective for this, but I did expect to get the target at the medium term resistance you can see marked in the diagram
mre close
MRE: Closed the position in Minara Resources today at $0.92 for an 11% loss. This is unfortunate as the share was a winner for a fair period of time before it dipped into loss territory. I passed off on the first exit point (penciled in green) as the share fell below the trendline I had drawn – this has proven to be a mistake. I took the exit today after the share closed last night below my stop loss line.
Anyway ttfn – a hard to read week this week – I can see some long and short positions. Lets see what happens in the US tonight and I may place some positions before going to my real job in the morning.
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