tradersams blog

HST close

HST: Closed my position in Hastie Group on friday at $2.05 for a 9% loss.

So – what can I say apart from – Quickly in, quickly out. You can see the entry I did when opening the position here. I note that I even said that the share has a sign of weakness on the day prior to me opening the position. Quick exit as both increasing trendline and ATR based stop losses triggered.

Given the activity in the Australian market in the latter part of the week, and the US (3.5% drop on the last 3 days of the week) I am tempted to reign in my R size a bit for this week, as this will move me into more of a cash position, as I am currently long stocks in many sectors in the Australian market – many of which you can see on my portfolio page.

XJO – ASX200.

ASX 200

Looking at the picture to the left you can see the graph finishing on friday for the ASX200. The trendlines are a collection of SMAs, a la the Guppy MMA. I don’t use these for triggering, but I do use them for a ‘market feeler’. Looking at the graph, there is a sharp drop through the short term MAs, but no effect on the longer MAs – there is still strength in the long term trend.

My take away from this is that we’ve hit October! The month of dismay at many times in history in the markets, the month the bears often tear up the prices. Will this happen this year? Don’t know – but I do know a lot of people seem to be expecting the bears to do their damage. So will the noisy crowd get it right or wrong? Looking at the graph above, the long termers are holding strong, and the short termers are stumbling. Look back at March this year – it took months for people to agree that the bulls were pushing things up.

To deal with this I’ll do what I always do – stick to the plan. Drop my R a bit as mentioned above, and take the exits that come my way.

I know one thing I will do this week – take out a market protective put option – I just have to choose one first.

The Noises

I did something this weekend I hardly ever do – I met with traders… I went to the Trading and Investment Expo in Melbourne. I only saw a few things – everyone just wanted to sell me another broking service, or some financial planning – neither of which I am after. There were some advisory services on offer – some with excellent results they can quote me – but until I see some of them in action, I still consider myself a sceptic.

Anyway – back to the noises. I actually ended up speaking to some traders. something I think I can say I have never done in my life before. So far I have read books, bought shares n other bits and pieces, skimmed magazines and looked at chart after chart after chart. I reckon I have had to talk to the kids, read books, watch tv since then – just to get some of their views out of my head. When I left the expo I was thinking – ‘they’re right, we’re all going down this week, I’m going to have to exit my longs, and take some shorts’.

Fast forward to tonight. From the above – yes market weakness. Yes bearish signs. Yes history is against it. But from my charts – one stop loss hit. Some shares are in interesting buying positions. I’ll stick to my graphs, and my assessment.

Maybe next Sunday I’ll be writing about why I should listen to the crowd – but not yet 🙂 I’ll read their footsteps, but be cautious of their words.

I’ll leave with this… I watched a presentation by Daryl Guppy who talked about some setups he likes to hunt, and how to trade them. I did enjoy this, and its the first time I’ve seen him present – I’ve only read his materials in the past. What I got out of this was that he did not comment on the current market situation – everything was in terms of ‘so – what is the opportunity’.

So – What is the opportunity this week?

Please feel free to comment if you read this far 😉