Archive for October 27th, 2009|Daily archive page
today – close ozl, capital raising cpb, iif
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ozl exit
OZL: Closed my position in Oz Minerals today at $1.19 for a 7%loss.
I opened this share on what looked to me to be a busted dip from an ascending triangle. Looks like it wasn’t so much busted as indicative… This is the second dip below the uptrend now, so didn’t wait for the close once it was clear it wasn’t coming back. This may have only dropped because the market is taking a dip at the moment, which is successfully moving me more towards a cash position.
Campbell Bros
CPB: Well – does this count as an entry? I have taken on the Campbell Brothers capital raising today, which sets me back $22 a share. There was some news about a takeover by CPB that went through today, and the share price has firmed up a little – making this apparently a good thing to do at the moment. If you look here you will see that I was struggling with whether to take up the offer – which has thrown me into a place of not taking a stop. I’ve decided to manage this by re-triggering my stop loss curve following the recent break. This counts as a discretionary change to my plan for this trade. We’ll find out if that makes sense when I close…
IIF fund raising
IIF: Not an entry or exit – another Capital raising!!! Now this one is worse than the Campbell Brothers one – if you look at the curve I was looking like I may be exiting today as yesterdays price formed a hammer closing just above the stop loss – which didn’t happen – the market for IIF was closed today due to the announcement. Now I have to go through that analysis again for this company. Maybe a re-calibration of the stop loss at the very least.
Learning – increased time in a share seems to increase the chance of the company reaching into your pocket for some cash via a capital raising!
today – close shv, all
shv close
SHV: Closed my position in Select Harvests today at $4.10, for a loss of 3.53%. Due to the double entry on the day the share took off, I had an average entry price of $4.22.
This trade got off to a belting start, and took off just nicely. Unfortunately it formed a rather obvious double top, which has been completely formed with todays close, so got out.
A better exit may have been to call the double top when it as clear, which was roughly mid last week, however I held in there for the stop loss to be hit.
Reviewing the graph I suspect there is still a trade to be had here, but I’ll go back to observing, and make another entry if the condition arises.
Still – happy with the entry, and I am on the fence as to whether I should have taken the earlier exit, as I would have at least exited with a small profit. Not to worry – I stuck to the plan, so thats good enough for me.
Aristocrat close
ALL: Closed my position in Aristocrat leisure today at $4.75 for a 6% loss. Like the one above, I am a bit disappointed in this one – I thought the chart had it all (see the entry write up here) but it was not to be.
The stop was triggered in fridays trade, with the exit taken mid morning today, missing the open as I just hate market orders. Gapping down on a Monday opening is not good for an exit.
Note the high volume today, and the bearish doji today. This does look like a typical reversal signal, and funnily enough (even though I have never mentioned fibonacci here before) the doji close is pretty much on the 0.618 retracement.
In this case I actually think that this share is at a bounce point and may well recover from here… so I may well enter again shortly.
The month so far…
Remember analysis is neither right nor wrong at the time of entry – only well reasoned. The market tells you when you close the trade whether you were right or wrong. That’s because, well, the market is NEVER wrong.
This means I have a month of only losing trades at the moment, with another 3 sitting within in bee sting of their stop loss points – but some that are open are hanging in there nicely.
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