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today – open wtf
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wtf open
WTF: Opened a position in Wotif.com today at $6.01 on open when my buy trigger fired and placed an order for me.
I had the trigger set to fire when the share went through the flat resistance line drawn across the earlier high, which coincides with the earlier highs about 2 years ago. These earlier highs are not penetrated at this stage so this may be an early entry, but I spose I’ll know that when I close the trade.
The outlying chart formation is roughly a broadening ascending wedge, still in formation as there has only been two traversals of the wedge, and 3 is preferred to actually qualify. The ‘inner formation’ is a very rough ascending triangle – again not ideal as not enough bounces from trend lines – but the bit I do like about this is that the last dip before the end of the triangle has not made it to the trendline and bounced on out. Often a good sign.
(The keen pattern follower will actually say my ascending triangle is not one at all, that its closer to an inverted head n shoulders, and I myself would say its a squiggle – but I’m calling it this, because as stated a few times earlier I am not too fussed about entries. Its what I do after the entry that counts.)
The disappointing thing about the the days trade was that the volume was low for this share – maybe the only entries were a couple of us that had triggers fired. Also a doji style formation was made, generally indicating indecision. For a breakout from an ascending triangle in general you want good breakout volume to have confirmation of the breakout.
So – in closing – remember to take those stops when they come, as I intend to do with this and all my trades.
today – buy okn, wan
Oakton re-entry
OKN: Opened a position in Oakton today at 3.40.
I exited the last Oakton trade when I hit a double top, which has now been clearly penetrated (smashed?) giving a strong run up to a the high for the year so far.
The share appears to be in an uptrend (higher highs, lower lows), so I have bought in where the share seems to be finding support.
Reasons against taking the trade? The high point in the chart is a nice example of a shooting star, a typical reversal signal. The top of that shooting star is clos-ish to the most recent significant highest high in August 2008. This may cap my upside, but if that is penetrated, then this is a good trade. Lets see where this goes.
Downside is limited due to closeness to next support line, and upwards trend line.
wan - another re-entry
WAN: Opened a position in West Australian News today at 7.80. Volume has been good the last two days, and days have been closing at or near daily tops for a while now – in spite of the large number of down days recently in the general market.
Looking for a bounce on the current upwards trendline – and hopefully not too much resistance at the recent high. Looking at todays chart looks like it may be a distinct possibility.
As I sign off for the night, the US markets are opening well, so if this pushes through resistance tomorrow this may be one to watch.
Even though it is new media.. so as a keeper this doesn’t make sense to me!
today – open FLT
Flight Centre Open
FLT: Opened a position in Flight Centre today at $16.10.
Flight centre has been in a fairly slow but steady uptend for a while now, and on the more general increase since stocks turned around some time ago.
Due to the closeness to the trendline I am able to set a fairly tight stop, which suits me just fine at the moment, given the bearish tendencies of the market for the last few days (until today anyway).
Looks like I’m still going long again.
today – close jbh
JB Hifi close
JBH: Closed my position in J.B. Hifi today at $20.40. This has given me a profit of 46% – that will help the stats.
When I look back at the entry from when I pyramided into the position I wrote at the time that this was a text book trade – which it seems to have been right until the end.
Happy with this trade – it ticks the boxes:
- Clear reason for entry (something not apparent in some of my trades)
- Followed a simple clean plan
- Broke through a downtrend, then an all time high to keep plowing into higher territory
- Good profit
And look at the smoothness of the red moving average (140 day) under the trend. A treat!
Anyway this is (was?) the longest position I have held since starting this blog that I’ve documented. Anyway its gone now – but who knows I may open it again in a couple of days…
Here’s to my dwindling portfolio, and increasing cash position!
Where are we at?
So where are we at?
All Ords last friday
To the right is a graph of the ASX All ordinaries from the close of trade last friday. Last thursday was a rough day on the ASX, and resulted in me getting kicked out of a bunch of positions, as seen in my previous post.
Friday itself was a nice up day, but a day when I sat on the sidelines and watched. (Well actually – I worked on my real job and wondered if getting out Thursday was the right thing!).
I now see Friday was a rough day on the US markets, and I liked the way The Fly wrote about it here – making the link with Halloween. He says he took on losses. I know last week cost me, but not nearly as much as it could have.
Anyway, back to the chart above. This whole business interests me because its about patterns… patterns that repeat, and patterns that don’t. I like these two curvy squiggles I have drawn. Can I trade them? Too early to say, but I do see repetition. Break to the up – go the bulls, break through the bottom, and I might get to see how the other half lives for a while.
Today is not a day for picking a direction. I see a setup. I wanna wait to hear which way everyone is going, so I can follow.
Mike at 5000trades, someone I might start to think of as the poet of the Australian markets and an interesting read because I have seen him take the opposing view to myself, is going for the sell this week.
Risk v Reward
This is a graph of my R-multiples this year so far.
R multiples
I am particularly proud of one particular point of this graph. I have no losses or greater than 2R – then again, gotta love a bull market. I tend to get a loss of greater than 2R when I miss market days through travel, I have a position that crashes a stop loss or some other unplanned reason.
The -1R and +1R trades almost cancel out, which leaves me in a positive position due almost entirely to the existence of a few trades in the 10R range. They are the trades that make this all worthwhile. Without my 32 -R trades, I may not have taken those high perfomring trades.
I take the loss, so I get to keep playing to take the win.
As stated previously, not all trades get to this blog, but once opened here and twittered, I close them out here.
Monday market opens in 3 minutes – and I don’t care, coz I’m not watching today.
Au revoir!
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