Archive for March, 2012|Monthly archive page
today – open prg
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PRG: Opened a long position in Programmed Maintenance Services today on System B at $2.52. A previous entry in this share was stopped out, but the recent climb has taken it to an 18 month high.
Volume isn’t great, however I don’t use that as a significant decision factor.
On another note the ASX200 today broke through and closed over 4300 – a good sign for the bulls!
today – open brg (pyramid entry)
Pyramid entry - brg
BRG: Opened a further position in Breville Group today using SystemB – this was a pyramid entry into an existing position. As for my previous pyramid entry that started prior to updating this blog I will simply track this entry. This entry was at $4.01.
I took the entry on a slight pullback from 4.05. I was looking to enter on penetration of the $4.00 line. This looks fairly aggressive, but the share is making all time highs, so I’ll go with it.
This is another nice looking breakout – and a long term traditional company – not a funky miner or explorer.
In other news I was bounced out of a trade in Senex today (ASX:SXY) when the price took a sudden dive on bad news. I’ve considered buying back in – but that is the sort of thing I did back in 2010 when I last used to write this blog. There seem to be plenty of opportunities at the moment, so I’ll sit on the sidelines for a couple of days and see how the price plays out.
Anyway, its bed time – night.
today – open mms
mms open
MMS: Opened a long position in Mcmillan Shakespeare today on System B at $10.65. I am no longer fully invested as a few trades got bounced out yesterday (not listed on this blog), freeing up some funds. I did a hunt last night and thought MMS looked the best of the opportunities.
The share is making long term highs, rising consistently, and shows increased volumes over the last few months.
Anyway, I’m off to bed – its a busy week, Duran Duran monday, and the Melbourne comedy Gala tonight – ace!
today – open cmj (pyramid entry)
pyramid entry - cmj
CMJ: Opened a further position in Consolidated Media Holdings today using SystemB – this was a pyramid entry into an existing position. For the purposes of tracking here I will simply track this entry. This entry got in at $2.96.
Looking back on my entry, I suspect I should have held off for an entry ~$3.05 to avoid any round number resistance. I have taken on slightly more risk than I intended.
This is a nice looking breakout I am trading, however I don’t see this as having huge potential as it’s a media company – but, oh well, the system found it, so let’s see how we go.
today – open bpt
BPT: Opened a long position in Beach Petroleum today – I entered with a warrant to gain some leverage. The instrument I used was a warrant BPTBOK, with an entry at $0.395 – I have the dubious honour of being the only purchaser today. This is a SystemA trade, which is a longer term trend following system (the first one of these written up since coming from hibernation).
Again this is a share that I have previously entered – in fact, this is one share that has popped up in my SystemA scan a couple of times over the last year of so – and given only two members of the ASX200 have shown up in about a year, it is a bit of a rare beast.
Note that I am using a warrant as the tradeable instrument, but for the plan I trade the underlying share, and take signals from that – hence the share price graph here.
Anyway, I’m off to bed – I need the ears to calm down – I saw Duran Duran tonight, and actually felt young in the audience.
today – open nwh
NWH: Opened a long position in NRW Holdings today at 4.13. This is a SystemB trade (the first written up since coming from hibernation).
nwh open
You can see in the diagram that I have previously entered, and was shaken out. The system called it back onto the candidates list, and with the way the week has played out, I took this prior to week close.
I had a meeting with a customer this morning so my 4.05 buy on open wasn’t taken – it opened up. I chased price when I logged on and got the $4.13.
SystemB – What it is
SystemB has evolved since I went into hibernation.
System B is a short term breakout trading system based on weekly charts. I have coded the weekly search using Amibroker. The search then locates a number of candidates, which I select from based on visual clues, typically looking for some kind of recent breakout. The universe for SystemB is open to ASX and the US, however I am generally only tracking ASX… this may of course change from time to time.
I am tempted to run it against the Singapore and Nifty stocks – but I haven’t got to that yet.
This system is intended to work in all market conditions, however clearly many are found during times of market growth, and a much smaller number in sideways periods. I look for short entries, but I have a bit more coding (as of March 2012) to get to where I am happy.
The candidate lists are typically generated on the weekend, however I may not take an entry until mid week. Exits are taken based on stop loss, or loss of momentum (my formula). System exits are interpreted on fridays close, however I may not enact them until late the next week – making it a discretionary element.
Returning from a break
Well – a break from writing and posting.
I have done a lot of reading, and a bit of trading. Its been rough. Looking at others blogs, news articles, conversations and so on – I get the feeling I am not alone in that thought.
I wont bore anyone who may read this with the highlights / lowlights of the last couple of years.
I will say that the last couple of months have treated my account nicely. I am not alone I suspect – as they say “a rising tide floats all the boats”. The year before that… well I managed not to sink the boat. Risk management. Cut losing trades. Hunt for moving shares. Try things and experiment on charts. That is a reasonable summary of what I did.
Looking at the blogroll on my site, I see that a number of others have moved on – some silently, some with a farewell. I know I have spoken to some traders over a coffee who have been battered and bruised. Then there are the ones who survive in all markets. That’s where I am aiming to get to. Its good to have a goal they say 😉
Moving forward it’s not my plan to post my open positions, some may say that’s cheating. I’ll only post the ones I open, until next I have a break. As previously stated, follow for education. If I go to sleep I can’t promise I’ll post my closes!
ok – that was a porky above – I will give you some highlights. I visited other countries for work and pleasure (Vietnam, Hong Kong, parts of Oz). I worked on a significant project here in Australia with the government that may in the long term affect how we all interact with them. I have worked on contracts and technical implementation of interesting company infrastructure. I’ve had good trades and bad trades. My daughter has moved for a term of school to live in the mountains and go hiking. My son is learning about capitalism – he has a job in a fast food joint serving chicken. I have tested some systems (amibroker) and coded some systems (c++ / amibroker / metastock). I’ve moved into a house with my girlfriend, survived corporate downsizings and worked on a project that touched every state school here in Victoria. Its been fun.
So – who knows if I will have enough time to write!
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