Archive for the ‘discretionary’ Category
today – open wor
wor open
WOR: Opened a position in Worley Parsons today at $27.25. Looking for a bounce on the climbing trendline.
I intended to get in on the bounce about a week ago, but missed the chance. Entered todays position on the market open.
Its a down day and slightly below the trendline, so this might be a short trade. Also there is a resistance zone a little above. Lets see how this goes.
today – open mcc, close cpb
mcc open
MCC: Opened a position in Macarthur Coal today at $10.20. The share made a new high for the year when I was entering, but has since subsided into the close of the day. Volume was good today (double yesterday), so all in all a reasonable looking entry.
Counting against this entry is the observation that this share looks to have lost some of its momentum over the last 3 months or so – maybe this new high will change that… maybe it wont.
Campbell Brothers - 4 entries, 1 exit
CPB: Closed my position in Campbell Brothers today at 26.99 for a 15% profit by the time you take into account all the entries I made when pyramiding.
You can see in the pink circle the effect of the capital raising, which has stalled the price action in its tracks. The fourth entry, shown as the low down green blob is the entry point of the shares collected via the capital raising.
Fairly straight forward trade, stuck to the plan for the first bit, a momentary panic when I had to think how I would react to the capital raising, and then (new plan under the arm) I traded the second half according to my updated plan.
To date I have not updated my plan with how to deal with this situation, as I wont hit it too often, and looking at a few over the years, I have had some capital raisings that have treated me well – and some have been a disaster. You can see above the plan in this case simply involved resetting my ATR based stop loss when the price stabilised.
today – open okn, all
Oakton pyramid entry
OKN: Pyramided into my Oakton position by increasing my holding with a purchase at $3.78.
It looks like my earlier entry tookthe bounce cleanly which is already encouraging. This has hiked my stop loss as can be seen in the diagram, which lead to me increasing my holding. Three white candles is generally fairly bullish, and the market over the last few days has been strong. Now to sit back – and follow the plan!
all open
ALL: Today I took out another position in Aristocrat Leisure at $4.60.
The last position here lost me 6%. Nup – I don’t reckon I’m chasing the share to get even for my loss – but you never know exactly what the subconcious is thinking!
The entry is clearly again based on the break of a downtrend, which happened yesterday with the formation of the big white candle. My plan was to get in on a rising share today, but it appears that the latter days trade was not in my favour – there is a dark cloud across the price chart. This is not normally a strong signal as the main candle body is well above the close from yesterday. Un inspiring volume though… hmmm listening to my words here I don’t feel strong about this entry – but never the less – in now, so stick with the plan.
today – open wtf
wtf open
WTF: Opened a position in Wotif.com today at $6.01 on open when my buy trigger fired and placed an order for me.
I had the trigger set to fire when the share went through the flat resistance line drawn across the earlier high, which coincides with the earlier highs about 2 years ago. These earlier highs are not penetrated at this stage so this may be an early entry, but I spose I’ll know that when I close the trade.
The outlying chart formation is roughly a broadening ascending wedge, still in formation as there has only been two traversals of the wedge, and 3 is preferred to actually qualify. The ‘inner formation’ is a very rough ascending triangle – again not ideal as not enough bounces from trend lines – but the bit I do like about this is that the last dip before the end of the triangle has not made it to the trendline and bounced on out. Often a good sign.
(The keen pattern follower will actually say my ascending triangle is not one at all, that its closer to an inverted head n shoulders, and I myself would say its a squiggle – but I’m calling it this, because as stated a few times earlier I am not too fussed about entries. Its what I do after the entry that counts.)
The disappointing thing about the the days trade was that the volume was low for this share – maybe the only entries were a couple of us that had triggers fired. Also a doji style formation was made, generally indicating indecision. For a breakout from an ascending triangle in general you want good breakout volume to have confirmation of the breakout.
So – in closing – remember to take those stops when they come, as I intend to do with this and all my trades.
today – buy okn, wan
Oakton re-entry
OKN: Opened a position in Oakton today at 3.40.
I exited the last Oakton trade when I hit a double top, which has now been clearly penetrated (smashed?) giving a strong run up to a the high for the year so far.
The share appears to be in an uptrend (higher highs, lower lows), so I have bought in where the share seems to be finding support.
Reasons against taking the trade? The high point in the chart is a nice example of a shooting star, a typical reversal signal. The top of that shooting star is clos-ish to the most recent significant highest high in August 2008. This may cap my upside, but if that is penetrated, then this is a good trade. Lets see where this goes.
Downside is limited due to closeness to next support line, and upwards trend line.
wan - another re-entry
WAN: Opened a position in West Australian News today at 7.80. Volume has been good the last two days, and days have been closing at or near daily tops for a while now – in spite of the large number of down days recently in the general market.
Looking for a bounce on the current upwards trendline – and hopefully not too much resistance at the recent high. Looking at todays chart looks like it may be a distinct possibility.
As I sign off for the night, the US markets are opening well, so if this pushes through resistance tomorrow this may be one to watch.
Even though it is new media.. so as a keeper this doesn’t make sense to me!
today – open FLT
Flight Centre Open
FLT: Opened a position in Flight Centre today at $16.10.
Flight centre has been in a fairly slow but steady uptend for a while now, and on the more general increase since stocks turned around some time ago.
Due to the closeness to the trendline I am able to set a fairly tight stop, which suits me just fine at the moment, given the bearish tendencies of the market for the last few days (until today anyway).
Looks like I’m still going long again.
today – close jbh
JB Hifi close
JBH: Closed my position in J.B. Hifi today at $20.40. This has given me a profit of 46% – that will help the stats.
When I look back at the entry from when I pyramided into the position I wrote at the time that this was a text book trade – which it seems to have been right until the end.
Happy with this trade – it ticks the boxes:
- Clear reason for entry (something not apparent in some of my trades)
- Followed a simple clean plan
- Broke through a downtrend, then an all time high to keep plowing into higher territory
- Good profit
And look at the smoothness of the red moving average (140 day) under the trend. A treat!
Anyway this is (was?) the longest position I have held since starting this blog that I’ve documented. Anyway its gone now – but who knows I may open it again in a couple of days…
Here’s to my dwindling portfolio, and increasing cash position!
today – close AMP, REH, WAN, AQA
Filed under: discretionary, general | Tags: amp, aqa, iif, reh, wan
Leave a comment Thats a lot of closures.
So, like everyone, I have interests outside that which I primarily write about here. Without wanting to digress too much, I have been out sparring tonight. I copped a slight knock to the jaw, and saw the followup hook coming in for the 1-2. Despite the knock, I kept the guard up and avoided the big punch. That’s what we train – keep your guard up, and try to read the opponent – sometimes you will get it right, and sometimes you will get hit. When you get hit – keep the guard up, feel for the next one!!
I’ve taken a few shots this month, as the portfolio update next weekend will attest. So – back to training – keep the guards up, take a shot when you can and accept you can’t catch everything. But never get hit so hard you can’t continue. After a few losses in a row, all bar one below 10%, I feel like its the end of a round. Splash water in the face, take a breather on the weekend and get back in there.
On with the show…
amp - taking a dive
AMP: Closed my position in AMP at $5.96 for an 8% loss. Now looking at the entry when I opened this trade, it was such a good looking trigger. The setup was linked to financials doing well, and then a nice breakout. I held on through the retracement.. and passed on my trendline stop loss waiting for … what? The support I expected did not exist. Stop triggered last night, and exit taken in early trade today. Now I have a more bearish outlook than a few weeks ago, taking the earlier exit looks like a no-brainer. hmmmm 20-20 hindsight. Of note is a flattening of the longer term MA (in orange). Lets step back from this a bit. Not a bad trade, but could have been better.
reh - small gain
REH: Exited this today at $24 for a 4% gain. This trade was always on a bit of a knife edge. I found to be a bit illiquid for my liking… and I knew that sentiment was not strong once I had a position. A couple of times in the last two weeks I have been the only seller of Reece – and no one has wanted to take my shares off my hands. Now things are grim, I thought I should close this out rather than get caught out – so I did, and it looks from the chart that others followed me out the door.
I really should remember to keep an eye on liquidity – this has happened to me twice this year now (note to self).
WAN - reading the papers
WAN: Closed my position in West Australian News today at $7.57 for an 8% gain. Now this is a better trade – I’m happier with this.
I was confident in my entry, as it was ‘text book’, departure from a steady uptrend to the high side, with good liquidity.
My ATR based stop loss tracked nicely and has kept me in a nice profit. Whilst I could have exited on the departure from the steeper trendline, this would translate to a futile attempt at top picking – not a winning approach as I have learnt over the years. In this case I definitely stuck to the plan, and no second guessing.
Aquila Resources
AQA: And finally AQA. I closed my position at $7.09 for a monster 14% loss just prior to close of trade today. This is a 2R loss. Even with a small position that I entered with, the loss was too big.
Look at those black candles – great at a birthday party – but not great for my bank balance! It is actually this trade that has told me I need to review everything on the weekend, and hunt some good shorts – I’m sure they’re out there. Looking through whats left of my positions, I may be taking more positions out tomorrow – but we shall see what the overnight US markets whisper to me.
And finally, a comment on a position I haven’t closed. And I still need to work out if it oughtta be. This is what a capital raising can do to my capital in the short term. But I love noticing things. Like the fall to the height of a recent peak, coinciding with the same price point as the capital raising… hmmm…
bugger - a capital raising
In closing – although I mentioned a contact sport above, I do not think of the market as an aggressor opponent – I think of it as a sparring partner. It does what it does, I do what I do, and through it all I get fitter.
So keep your guards up!
today – day trade that shouldn’t have been – bkn
BKN: Entered a position in Bradken today – and exited an hour or so later. Exited short of stop loss, for a 3% loss.
bkn - 5 min chart today
This is the 5 min chart of the days activity. You can see where my entry was triggered, all according to the script. Enter on a pullback to a trend line support. All standard stuff. Then the price collapsed and I got a price warning – so I took an exit (also marked). Volume was high today – see in the daily chart following. Look at that big black candle – I bought right into that.
Bradken - daily
So – a bad trade?
I exited short of my planned stop loss – but is it because I got gun shy? I have done 5 losing trades in a row, so I am in the process of tightening my stops, and now need to be more careful with my stock choices. These price drops are coming a bit more frequently this month, and is affecting my hitherto stella performance (!). Looking at the volume, penetration of the short term trend I had selected arbitrarily to try to bounce from, I am happy that the entry was ok – if a little risky. The exit was, well, early – but given the volume the sentiment looks to have moved against me. Go with the heart bail. Looking at the days close – I was going to be getting out tomorrow anyway as this is a lower low than the past two – pretty definitive I’d say.
If not clear from the above – this was supposed to be a standard 2-10 day trade – not a day trade as thats not my thing.
So – not entirely with the plan. Not a good trade. Not a bad one. A reasonable discretionary trade – a bad system trade.
What is it they say – anyone can make money in a bull market – but I seem to be jumping with the bears this month. Trading activity is down – losses are up. Anyway – repeat the mantra – trade the plan. Its just another trade. Go on – get over it. Be ready to pull the trigger again tomorrow.
today – close ozl, capital raising cpb, iif
ozl exit
OZL: Closed my position in Oz Minerals today at $1.19 for a 7%loss.
I opened this share on what looked to me to be a busted dip from an ascending triangle. Looks like it wasn’t so much busted as indicative… This is the second dip below the uptrend now, so didn’t wait for the close once it was clear it wasn’t coming back. This may have only dropped because the market is taking a dip at the moment, which is successfully moving me more towards a cash position.
Campbell Bros
CPB: Well – does this count as an entry? I have taken on the Campbell Brothers capital raising today, which sets me back $22 a share. There was some news about a takeover by CPB that went through today, and the share price has firmed up a little – making this apparently a good thing to do at the moment. If you look here you will see that I was struggling with whether to take up the offer – which has thrown me into a place of not taking a stop. I’ve decided to manage this by re-triggering my stop loss curve following the recent break. This counts as a discretionary change to my plan for this trade. We’ll find out if that makes sense when I close…
IIF fund raising
IIF: Not an entry or exit – another Capital raising!!! Now this one is worse than the Campbell Brothers one – if you look at the curve I was looking like I may be exiting today as yesterdays price formed a hammer closing just above the stop loss – which didn’t happen – the market for IIF was closed today due to the announcement. Now I have to go through that analysis again for this company. Maybe a re-calibration of the stop loss at the very least.
Learning – increased time in a share seems to increase the chance of the company reaching into your pocket for some cash via a capital raising!
tradersams blog 