Archive for the ‘ifm’ Tag
today – open ALL – close IFM
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ifm close
IFM: Closed my position in Infomedia today at 0.38 for a 2.5% loss. And this is annoying. Small loss, but this one frustrates me.
This is my worst exit in a while – 3 clear exit signals where given to me, but I held on thinking I might at least close out even. BIG MISTAKE.
The price fell through my trailing stop loss (first circle in the picture), then on the third day hit the uptrend line I had on my chart – and fell through that too. The price then tracked along the bottom of the trendline before taking a dive again yesterday.
Yes I still reckon the share may recover – but that is irrelevant – I didn’t stick to the plan….I should exit, observe from the sidelines and jump back in when the conditions are right.
I have been lucky actually – if this was the market about a year ago, a break below that trendline and the buyers would have been heading for the exits leaving me with a rapidly falling stock price and the commensurate hole in the pocket. It must be a bull market – they reckon anyone can make money in a bull market – and I got out lightly here.
Repeat … trade the plan … repeat … trade the plan …
all open
ALL: Opened a position in Aristcrat Leisure today for the first time in years, at 5.06.
I was drawn towards the share from the market heat map, which showed higher price movement than usual. A review of the daily chart showed:
- break through downwards trendline yesterday
- new mid term high today
- 200 day SMA turned up about a month ago
- good volume
On top of this the share was in a consolidation pattern for some time – so lets see if it shakes off the shackles of the bottoming process.
Whatever happens – follow the plan!
today – open ipl, ifm
ipl open
IPL: Opened a position in Incitec Pivot today at $2.95 on market opening this morning. Incitec has been a reasonably volatile mover over the last couple of years, and has been a reasonable earner for me in the past. The share has been at its highs for the year lately, and has just dipped to the previous medium term high.
I’m using this previous resistance as a potential support point – but I wont actually know for a while. This does allow a tight stop to be set however which is good from a risk management perspective.
ifm pyramid entry
IFM: Increased my position in Infomedia today by placing another buy at $0.415. The share actually took quite a dip during the days trade when the bears dragged it down in early trade, but it recovered healthily closing near the high.
Readings… Change on the Horizon?
Looking at Stockgawk, there is an interesting article where Andrew Finkle talks about his reasons why he thinks we’re about to see a reversal… a key item he mentions that I have observed is
The past few days have shown a lot of Dojis. … a Doji is a reversal day – where price gets rejected … This makes me think back to Ralph Block … who used to say “Volatility is the precursor to a change in trend.”
Looking at my recent trades (published here and my unlisted ones) I am seeing price fluctuations that, whilst bearish in the short term, seem ‘undecided’ when looked at over a slightly longer period of time. I listen to the talk at work, and its like everyone is waiting… this is not the increased excitement I was detecting just a couple of weeks ago.
So, as you may have noticed I trade more to the bull side of the market, but this is more affected by the sorts of trades I can comfortably pull off. As I have a full time day job I don’t tend to make trading decisions by day, I just act on earlier plans – but in my experience to play the short side of the market (with options / warrants / CFD’s) I need a closer contact with the market in order to maintain a chance of securing profits I might make – the speed of movement isn’t always in my favour in those areas.
So – why did his article resonate with me? Well, many have heard of the magazine front page effect, ie: when everyones talking about it, you are probably too late. I had one of those moments tonight – on the news here in Australia there was a commentator who said “Its a champagne moment for Australia” when commenting that we had effectively dodged a bullet as far as the economic crisis is concerned. I spose you had to see the gentlemans exhuberance. What I saw, combined with my recent views of the market, has me pulling my stops in on my plans, and keeping a close eye. Despite me having issues managing short trades – that doesn’t mean I don’t enact the plan!
Anyway, US market down looking undecided in the first 2 hours of trade, and I need to know how that goes before I set my entry trades for the open – if I do at all!
today – close ewc, open ifm
ewc close
EWC: Closed today in two peices as the price fell after the first sale – my tweet said a lightening in position, but soon after I closed the full position – for a gain of 3%. Note the similarity of the last few days to the graph in yesterdays post for the closing of the CHC position. Anyway, did not quite break the stop loss, but considering the acceleration of some parts of the market, combined with the ‘lower low’, I thought it prudent to cut the trade.
ifm monthly
IFM: Opened a position in Infomedia today at 0.37 – just look at the monthly graph to the right. From the monthly graph the telling signs that have caught my interest are the low and declining volume over the last 6 months, combined with a volume spike just prior to the share price pushing aggressively through the down trend. Below is the daily graph.
The share was located on a heat map by my broker with high volume today. I have sketched in the volume on the bottom of the graph.
ifm (Infomedia) today
Reasons for entry:
- volume spike about a month ago to start uptrend
- volume spike today
- gap up
- impressive break of monthly downtrend
The factors I can see against this entry are:
- I’d expect a retracement after this level of run-up
- Possible H&S bottom over the last months indicating that I have entered just short of the standard price projection expectation of a H&S bottom formation.
Anyway, lets see how we go.
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