Archive for the ‘iif’ Tag
today – open jbh, close iif
jbh - system A open
JBH: Opened a position in JB Hifi today at 22.78.
As noted in my last post, my System A has fired an entry in JB Hifi. System A is a medium/long term trend following system, that has so far only triggered on two stocks in the last 6 months. The system is only scanning the ASX200 at the moment – I really do need to sit down and tweak the system to scan other markets – but I haven’t done that yet.
I have no issues at all making this entry – this is one of the smoothest up trends in the market.
iif close - very late!
IIF: Close my position in ING Industrial Fund today as 0.45 for a 13% loss. This has been a bad trade, and exploits a gap in my system. As noted in other posts, I haven’t clearly planned what I will do when a company does a capital raising. That said, the recent capital raising in Campbell Brothers treated me well – a feat I was hoping to happen again in this share.
But it wasn’t to be. In the diagram I have drawn three circles – 3 exits I should have taken.
The obvious question is why did I exit today? Well, with the price drop thursday, the price of the share dropped below the price at which I could buy more shares from the capital raising – that can’t be good. The companies attempt to raise funds will result in selling me shares dearer than I can get them on the market. So – someone else can have my shares – trade closed.
Anyway, a few more stops being toyed with, so I’ll keep going with closing those positions…
today – close AMP, REH, WAN, AQA
Filed under: discretionary, general | Tags: amp, aqa, iif, reh, wan
Leave a comment Thats a lot of closures.
So, like everyone, I have interests outside that which I primarily write about here. Without wanting to digress too much, I have been out sparring tonight. I copped a slight knock to the jaw, and saw the followup hook coming in for the 1-2. Despite the knock, I kept the guard up and avoided the big punch. That’s what we train – keep your guard up, and try to read the opponent – sometimes you will get it right, and sometimes you will get hit. When you get hit – keep the guard up, feel for the next one!!
I’ve taken a few shots this month, as the portfolio update next weekend will attest. So – back to training – keep the guards up, take a shot when you can and accept you can’t catch everything. But never get hit so hard you can’t continue. After a few losses in a row, all bar one below 10%, I feel like its the end of a round. Splash water in the face, take a breather on the weekend and get back in there.
On with the show…
amp - taking a dive
AMP: Closed my position in AMP at $5.96 for an 8% loss. Now looking at the entry when I opened this trade, it was such a good looking trigger. The setup was linked to financials doing well, and then a nice breakout. I held on through the retracement.. and passed on my trendline stop loss waiting for … what? The support I expected did not exist. Stop triggered last night, and exit taken in early trade today. Now I have a more bearish outlook than a few weeks ago, taking the earlier exit looks like a no-brainer. hmmmm 20-20 hindsight. Of note is a flattening of the longer term MA (in orange). Lets step back from this a bit. Not a bad trade, but could have been better.
reh - small gain
REH: Exited this today at $24 for a 4% gain. This trade was always on a bit of a knife edge. I found to be a bit illiquid for my liking… and I knew that sentiment was not strong once I had a position. A couple of times in the last two weeks I have been the only seller of Reece – and no one has wanted to take my shares off my hands. Now things are grim, I thought I should close this out rather than get caught out – so I did, and it looks from the chart that others followed me out the door.
I really should remember to keep an eye on liquidity – this has happened to me twice this year now (note to self).
WAN - reading the papers
WAN: Closed my position in West Australian News today at $7.57 for an 8% gain. Now this is a better trade – I’m happier with this.
I was confident in my entry, as it was ‘text book’, departure from a steady uptrend to the high side, with good liquidity.
My ATR based stop loss tracked nicely and has kept me in a nice profit. Whilst I could have exited on the departure from the steeper trendline, this would translate to a futile attempt at top picking – not a winning approach as I have learnt over the years. In this case I definitely stuck to the plan, and no second guessing.
Aquila Resources
AQA: And finally AQA. I closed my position at $7.09 for a monster 14% loss just prior to close of trade today. This is a 2R loss. Even with a small position that I entered with, the loss was too big.
Look at those black candles – great at a birthday party – but not great for my bank balance! It is actually this trade that has told me I need to review everything on the weekend, and hunt some good shorts – I’m sure they’re out there. Looking through whats left of my positions, I may be taking more positions out tomorrow – but we shall see what the overnight US markets whisper to me.
And finally, a comment on a position I haven’t closed. And I still need to work out if it oughtta be. This is what a capital raising can do to my capital in the short term. But I love noticing things. Like the fall to the height of a recent peak, coinciding with the same price point as the capital raising… hmmm…
bugger - a capital raising
In closing – although I mentioned a contact sport above, I do not think of the market as an aggressor opponent – I think of it as a sparring partner. It does what it does, I do what I do, and through it all I get fitter.
So keep your guards up!
today – close ozl, capital raising cpb, iif
ozl exit
OZL: Closed my position in Oz Minerals today at $1.19 for a 7%loss.
I opened this share on what looked to me to be a busted dip from an ascending triangle. Looks like it wasn’t so much busted as indicative… This is the second dip below the uptrend now, so didn’t wait for the close once it was clear it wasn’t coming back. This may have only dropped because the market is taking a dip at the moment, which is successfully moving me more towards a cash position.
Campbell Bros
CPB: Well – does this count as an entry? I have taken on the Campbell Brothers capital raising today, which sets me back $22 a share. There was some news about a takeover by CPB that went through today, and the share price has firmed up a little – making this apparently a good thing to do at the moment. If you look here you will see that I was struggling with whether to take up the offer – which has thrown me into a place of not taking a stop. I’ve decided to manage this by re-triggering my stop loss curve following the recent break. This counts as a discretionary change to my plan for this trade. We’ll find out if that makes sense when I close…
IIF fund raising
IIF: Not an entry or exit – another Capital raising!!! Now this one is worse than the Campbell Brothers one – if you look at the curve I was looking like I may be exiting today as yesterdays price formed a hammer closing just above the stop loss – which didn’t happen – the market for IIF was closed today due to the announcement. Now I have to go through that analysis again for this company. Maybe a re-calibration of the stop loss at the very least.
Learning – increased time in a share seems to increase the chance of the company reaching into your pocket for some cash via a capital raising!
today – open tol, iif
iif open
IIF: Opened a position again today in the ING Industrial Fund at $0.52. The share still seems to be climbing nicely, so re-entering to see if I can grab a few more $$ from its rising.
Looking at the picture to the right there appears to be bullish rejection over the last 3 days or so, hopefully forming support just below my entry -so a tight stop is in order for this trade.
tol open
TOL: Opened a position indirectly in Toll holdings today – indirectly taken out by using a warrant in Toll – tolwmb at 0.245. A warrant was taken because I want to leverage the position, and the warrants aren’t heavily enough traded for my liking.
Looking at the daily graph to the right, Toll has a reasonable short term uptrend in place.
Things actually get interesting for me though when I look at the weekly chart below.
Toll weekly
I’m looking at this as a fairly nicely formed inverse head and shoulders pattern, which sounds to me like a fairly solid bottoming formation. The share fell into the left side of the H&S during the GFC, so I’m looking to ride this up.
My biggest risk in this trade? That the warrant will expire before the real movement happens. I have paid a fair bit for time decay in the warrant, so the share does have to increase significantly by November for my strategy to be sound. For the purposes of risk determination, when entering warrants I consider the whole investment as R for my risk / reward calculations.
Anyway, off to bed, with happy dreams about $AUD/USD longs and Gold longs!
today – open iif
iif open
IIF: Opened a position with the ING Industrial units today at 0.325.
This is the second trade in IIF over the last few months – the lat one just before I started this blog. I found it originally from a heat map scan in April when it was showing a very good volume in the market at that time. The volume was down a little over the last 2-3 week s, with a good increase over the last two days, spiking nicely on friday. The entry was effected during the days trade when the price traded over 0.325 after noon (set the trade night before as I am doing a lot lately).
The graph is not really a true ascending triangle as there is really only one bounce off the top resistance line, rather than the two I would prefer. Still, a strong looking pattern, so will ride this one through.
System A: Did the weekend scan this afternoon – the system still is not firing, so will carry on discretionary trading.
Portfolio tracking:
So here’s a question for anyone who reads this – I’m after suggestions for tracking my portfolio on this blog… as you can see on the link buttons I’ve made a start, but it seems like it will take a while for me to keep it updated – I’m looking for an easy way to do this. I’ve got ideas… but…
Anyway, the bulls seems to be taking a breather – but my graphs think they are still running. Lets see what this week has in store for us!!
tradersams blog 