Archive for the ‘ozl’ Tag
today – close ozl, capital raising cpb, iif
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ozl exit
OZL: Closed my position in Oz Minerals today at $1.19 for a 7%loss.
I opened this share on what looked to me to be a busted dip from an ascending triangle. Looks like it wasn’t so much busted as indicative… This is the second dip below the uptrend now, so didn’t wait for the close once it was clear it wasn’t coming back. This may have only dropped because the market is taking a dip at the moment, which is successfully moving me more towards a cash position.
Campbell Bros
CPB: Well – does this count as an entry? I have taken on the Campbell Brothers capital raising today, which sets me back $22 a share. There was some news about a takeover by CPB that went through today, and the share price has firmed up a little – making this apparently a good thing to do at the moment. If you look here you will see that I was struggling with whether to take up the offer – which has thrown me into a place of not taking a stop. I’ve decided to manage this by re-triggering my stop loss curve following the recent break. This counts as a discretionary change to my plan for this trade. We’ll find out if that makes sense when I close…
IIF fund raising
IIF: Not an entry or exit – another Capital raising!!! Now this one is worse than the Campbell Brothers one – if you look at the curve I was looking like I may be exiting today as yesterdays price formed a hammer closing just above the stop loss – which didn’t happen – the market for IIF was closed today due to the announcement. Now I have to go through that analysis again for this company. Maybe a re-calibration of the stop loss at the very least.
Learning – increased time in a share seems to increase the chance of the company reaching into your pocket for some cash via a capital raising!
week closeout – the evidence you see
So I feel I should close out the discussion I started with myself at the end of last week… see this post.…
ASX 200 last friday
This is the ASX top 200 at the end of the week. The circle is around last Fridays trade when I wrote that last post, about the ‘voices I heard’ – and you can see where this week closed.
The close last Friday formed a short term low – an excellent buying opportunity in retrospect – but exactly a week later we are into the highest high in just on a year.
So how did I cope?
- I largely ignored the voices, and went with my plan – with the minor change of lowering R, which results in smaller position sizes. This has not cost me anything, and I’m happy that this is a safe idea.
- I took out a couple of protective put options against the ASX200 to act as insurance against a drop. The values where at 4600 and 4500 points, the current value of the ASX200 is 4750 which means I expect these options expire worthless, so I have an overall loss this week based on the price of the options.
- Hesitation – whilst I did largely ignore the voices, ensuring that they did not affect my trades was a concern. The voices can cause you to pass up trades you should take, or exit early from trades you are already in. I reckon I did lose a few brain cycles wondering if I was holding off some decisions because of hesitating when pondering the views of others.
Looking over the week, I did find some opportunities. I entered Sino Gold (SGX) and Oz Minerals (OZL) although early days so will have to wait n see how these play out.
The one trade that I seriously question my actions in is the Campbell Brothers (CPB) trade. Definitely a weakening in that position this week, and I don’t want it to subside much further as I will have to exercise my stop.
Looking forward?
View based on the end of the week, going forward? There is an ever so minor contraction in the red colored MAs in the graph, which indicates to me a slightly altering view in the eyes of the longer term investors. Combine that with the increasing volatility and I would say I need to be sharp as a nail on my stop losses, and ready to exit in a hurry.
Did you grab an opportunity this week? Post a comment and let me know.
end of week – open ozl
Oz Mineral open
OZL: Opened a position in Oz Minerals on friday at 1.285.
A nicely defined upwards triangle has formed over the last 3 months or so. As you can see I basically decided it wasn’t going to form at the end when it dropped out the bottom of the formation, breaking the upwards trend line – however (benefit of 20-20 hindsight and looking more carefully) you can see that when the price came out the bottom of the formation the volume all but dried up.
The price has now broken upward, effectively completing the original pattern, and busting the failed pattern – so enter long.
Good healthy volume, lets see where this goes.
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