Archive for the ‘sgx’ Tag
note – why you take the small loss
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Sino Gold
The graph here shows a recent trade. This is EXACTLY why you take the small losses. Yes I know they get worse than this – but I am happy I took the exit when I did.
Sleep tight.
end of week – close sgx
SGX close
SGX: Closed my position in Sino Gold on Friday at 7.02 for a 3% loss.
Exit taken as the price fell to close the gap on Friday, which had existed for the last two weeks or so. The price is appearing to form a double top, however this is not confirmed yet as the price hasn’t closed below the lower valley. This share may be worth following further as the price may bounce on the upwards trend line, or may form a nice double top – either way, my automatically triggered stop loss based on %-age loss has been hit, so this transaction is closed for now.
Ultimately a quiet week for me – I monitored my open positions for the week, and only had this one close to deal with all week – its been a while since I’ve had a single transaction week!
All capped off with a wonderful weekend in the Victorian high country – Beautiful!
(minor text edit 19-10-09)
week closeout – the evidence you see
So I feel I should close out the discussion I started with myself at the end of last week… see this post.…
ASX 200 last friday
This is the ASX top 200 at the end of the week. The circle is around last Fridays trade when I wrote that last post, about the ‘voices I heard’ – and you can see where this week closed.
The close last Friday formed a short term low – an excellent buying opportunity in retrospect – but exactly a week later we are into the highest high in just on a year.
So how did I cope?
- I largely ignored the voices, and went with my plan – with the minor change of lowering R, which results in smaller position sizes. This has not cost me anything, and I’m happy that this is a safe idea.
- I took out a couple of protective put options against the ASX200 to act as insurance against a drop. The values where at 4600 and 4500 points, the current value of the ASX200 is 4750 which means I expect these options expire worthless, so I have an overall loss this week based on the price of the options.
- Hesitation – whilst I did largely ignore the voices, ensuring that they did not affect my trades was a concern. The voices can cause you to pass up trades you should take, or exit early from trades you are already in. I reckon I did lose a few brain cycles wondering if I was holding off some decisions because of hesitating when pondering the views of others.
Looking over the week, I did find some opportunities. I entered Sino Gold (SGX) and Oz Minerals (OZL) although early days so will have to wait n see how these play out.
The one trade that I seriously question my actions in is the Campbell Brothers (CPB) trade. Definitely a weakening in that position this week, and I don’t want it to subside much further as I will have to exercise my stop.
Looking forward?
View based on the end of the week, going forward? There is an ever so minor contraction in the red colored MAs in the graph, which indicates to me a slightly altering view in the eyes of the longer term investors. Combine that with the increasing volatility and I would say I need to be sharp as a nail on my stop losses, and ready to exit in a hurry.
Did you grab an opportunity this week? Post a comment and let me know.
today – open sgx – thoughts on cpb
sgx open
SGX: Opened a position in Sino Gold today at $7.25. Selected this position today based on the high movement causing it to show up on my heat map early in the day.
Quick analysis showed a share in a 3 month uptrend, and just below medium term resistance. There have been 3 touches with the trendline I have drawn, so I’ll use it as an indicator for this trade.
Volume has been dipping over the last month and I would like to see this improve. Looking at the moving average ribbon, the investors are holding strong, and the short term traders are starting to get involved in the share again. I don’t know the reason for the gap up today – but then again, there’s not enough time for me to keep up with the news.
Probably not my best entry in a while – but now I’m in, I’ll manage the trade. Selecting the share is not the major hurdle to me, its getting out the other side well that matters.
CPB continues
CPB: Campbell Brothers – comment on my position… I’ve been thrown that curve ball that I don’t like to get – something that my plan doesn’t really cover.
Campbell Brothers has fallen through the ATR based stop loss I set – but is still above the rising trend line by a tad. The reason seems to be that Campbell Brothers has joined the list of companies over the last few months that are asking for more money by fund raising from the markets. So – the price is artificially low, and looking at previous shares that have done this, holding seems to have been a wise move… ok, that’s not a detailed analysis and may well have to research that (doh – homework!).
So the new plan is to lower my stop loss price, which is certainly a potential hit to my profit on this trade. Technically my plan covers me if the share drops further, but it is a bit ‘grey’ at this specific point in time.
The real question here is – do I want to write a rule for how I respond to these situations? I’ll have to think how to test that.
… and look at that AUD …!
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